WASHINGTON - U.S. automakers are returning to Congress for high-stakes hearings they hope will persuade skeptical lawmakers to save their troubled industry with $34 billion in emergency aid, but a top Senate Democrat wants to hand their problem to the Federal Reserve.
GENEVA - Credit Suisse Group said Thursday it is cutting 5,300 jobs - about 11 percent of its global work force - in a bid to reduce costs and take its business back into the black.
WASHINGTON - A top executive of General Motors Corp. said Wednesday bankruptcy isn't a viable option, as the United Auto Workers braced for a decision on contract concessions to the endangered Big Three.
COLUMBUS, Ohio - Oil prices tumbled below $50 a barrel Monday as National Bureau of Economic Research reported that the U.S. economy has been in a recession since December 2007.
DETROIT - Ford Motor Co. is considering selling Volvo Car Corp. as the beleaguered U.S. automaker seeks to raise cash and survive tight credit markets and a global automotive sales crisis.
Fed Chairman Bernanke called on the government to ramp up efforts to stem soaring home foreclosures.Treasury Weighs Mortgage Plan Rates Lowest Since JanuaryLower Rates Won't Help]]>
If the U.S. Treasury manages to follow through on its plan to push mortgage rates down—as much as a full percentage point—on new home purchases, it would represent a bold move for Hank Paulson’s D.C. bailout boys: They’d actually be helping the solvent. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday afternoon that “the plan, which is in the development stages, would use mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bring loan rates down as low as 4.5 percent, a full percentage point lower than the prevailing rates for 30-year fixed mortgages.” The Treasury would buy securities underpinning loans guaranteed by the two mortgage giants as well as those guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration. While America has grown accustomed to seeing deadbeats from Wall Street and the hybrid-driving hobos of Detroit standing in Capitol Hill’s breadline, it’s refreshing that the Treasury’s housing plan targets people who have been prudent and have enough cash for a real down payment with ostensibly enough left over to actually pay their mortgages. As long as the mortgage and banking industries don’t backslide into their free-lending ways, giving buying power to average Americans—as long as they’re not flipping Florida condos—can’t be too bad of a move. There is some risk, obviously, that Americans so deeply fear losing their jobs, their credit cards, and their 401k balances that lower rates won’t spur any real estate bargain-hunting . Still, as a fine editorial in Wednesday’s Journal pointed out, there’s just as much risk in the F.D.I.C.’s proposal to modify existing mortgages and give homeowners a second chance to default. That may cost the Feds $24 billion to start. Not a great proposition. Stabilizing the housing market holds one of the keys to a real recovery in that it helps the flow of capital in the macro-economy while providing a psychological boost to Main Street. Much of the consumer spending boom of the late 1990s was rooted not only in cheap credit but in the confidence Americans had that their homes had value that wouldn’t quickly erode (even if the appreciation was astronomical for a few years). The best way for Washington to rebuild that sentiment is by helping those who can actually help themselves. Related LinksCorporate Lobbying and the Supbrime CrisisParsing Paulson: It's a Systemic ThingCue the Optimists
It's not giving away toasters, but it is still surprising to learn that Goldman Sachs is even considering an internet banking operation, as the Wall Street Journal reports. Goldman, of course, became a bank holding company in September. And with funding uncertain amid the financial crisis, deposits would provide a stable source of funds. Its rival, Morgan Stanley, now also a bank holding company, said in October that it would work to build its bank deposits through the sale of certificates of deposit and other savings-account and currency-account products. Still, the idea of an internet bank—so retail! so common!—wipes away even more of the luster of what it used to mean to be an elite investment bank. Joe Weisenthal of ClusterStock says that after the Wall Street Journal report of a possible $2 billion quarterly loss at Goldman "now here's the second horse of the apocalypse." (The fine folks at ClusterStock appear to have gotten our Felix Salmon to be working and lucid at 8:20 in the morning; no small feat that.) Foreign banks like ING and HSBC have used online banks to build a presence in the United States and to take deposits with a low overhead. Citigroup was criticized for buying the struggling British online bank Egg in January 2007, but Goldman could certainly build its own at a much lower cost. Related LinksWall Street Huddles for SafetyThe Big Chill in Deal MakingAll the Way to the Banks
Crude oil prices have slumped to three-and-a-half-year lows, but the push for nuclear power is picking up momentum, nearly three decades after the accident at Three Mile Island. The latest sign that nukes are attractive again is a possible takeover battle between one of the world's richest investors and one of the biggest utility companies. Électricité de France, the biggest operator of nuclear reactors, is offering $4.5 billion for half of Constellation Energy Group's nuclear business in an effort to torpedo a bid from Warren Buffett. State-controlled E.D.F., which already owns 9.5 percent of Constellation, is presenting its offer as a joint venture with Constellation. Its plan values Constellation at a much higher price than Buffett's bid of $4.7 billion for the whole company that was made in September. E.D.F. has been busy extending it global presence, agreeing to buy British Energy Group in September for nearly $19 billion. The move could trigger a bidding war for Baltimore-based Constellation, which owns three nuclear plants and half of nuclear-plant-development company UniStar Nuclear Energy. In the United States, there has been no new application for a plant that was subsequently built since 1973, but the appetite for low carbon emissions and a political desire to reduce the United States' intake of imported energy is making nuclear energy look attractive. More than 20 companies are seeking permission from a number of states to build some 32 plants. Jeff VanDam noted in the February issue of Condé Nast Portfolio that utility companies are also taking advantage of a 2005 law that provides tax credits and risk insurance to companies that build nuclear plants. But building a nuclear plant is expensive: The reactor alone costs more than $2 billion. And the current credit crunch could make financing very difficult to obtain. Energy is a big part of Buffett's portfolio. His MidAmerican Energy Holding Co. owns utilities and gas pipelines. But Constellation would have been his first big step into the nuclear sector. Buffett typically does not enter into bidding wars. And after recent setbacks with his investments in Goldman Sachs and General Electric, he may be prepared to retreat on the nuclear font. Related LinksA Google in the SunGoogle And GE In Energy Tie-UpHow Green Is My Investment
General Electric has outlined its battle plan to fight the financial crisis, seeking to preserve its triple-A rating and its dividend. The conglomerate—whose businesses range from NBC to turbines—said it expected to report fourth-quarter earnings at the low range of its previous forecast. It sees earnings of 50 to 52 cents per share. Analysts have been expecting a profit of 51 cents per share. Nervous investors have been focusing on G.E.'s giant finance unit, G.E. Capital, amid concerns that it could become the next casualty of the financial crisis. Shares of G.E. have slumped 58 percent this year. The company today detailed how it will shrink G.E. Capital and reduce its leverage. Jobs will be cut and the unit will depend less on the commercial paper market and seek some $80 billion in alternative funding. G.E. will take a charge of as much as $1.4 billion to pay for cost cuts and restructuring. "We are taking a number of tough but prudent actions to make G.E. Capital safer, stronger, and more secure during this financial crisis," said Keith Sherin, the company's chief financial officer. "We are committed to being a Triple-A company. These actions include a funding plan that reflects the current market, and we are lowering our leverage ratio and commercial-paper balance. Our forecast anticipates a challenging loss environment. We are also reorganizing the business to reduce costs and allocate capital more efficiently."G.E. Capital made clear that it would not tap the $700 billion TARP program (which could spark fears of share dilution among investors), but it is taking advantage of two other federal programs: the Federal Reserve's facility to backstop commercial paper and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.Related LinksWill $700 Billion Be Enough?Fed Economists Duel Over Crisis 'Myths'Sign of a Bottom?
It is obvious that the business of Wall Street has changed utterly. Goldman Sachs, which had been so clever to profit handsomely last year from the collapse in the subprime mortgage market, has yet to figure how to make money in this new era. The firm could report a loss of as much as $2 billion, or $5 per share, when it reports fourth-quarter results next week, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing "industry insiders." Such a loss—which would be the firm's first since it went public in 1999—would top even the most pessimistic of the analysts covering Goldman. On Monday, Susan Roth Katzke of Credit Suisse said she expected Goldman to report a loss of $4 per share for the quarter, which ended on November 28. Her report helped send shares of Goldman tumbling 17 percent on Monday. "October was a difficult month; November—though we were hopeful—was really no better, with asset prices for equities, credit, and real estate only coming under more pressure," she wrote. The firm's stake in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and some private equity investments have declined in value in recent months. The Journal points to problems in Goldman's distressed investments—like golf courses in Japan and troubled auto loans in Thailand—that had been a big profit center. Other analysts see a more modest loss for the quarter. Prashant Bhatia of Citigroup has forecast a loss of $1.60 per share, while Michael Mayo of Deutsche Bank estimates a loss of 65 cents per share. The consensus estimate, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, is a loss of 62 cents per share for the quarter. It is not as if Goldman has not been responding to the challenge of the financial crisis. The firm has converted to a bank holding company and it has bolstered its capital: selling $5 billion of preferred stock to Warren Buffett, $6 billion of stock in a public offering, and $10 billion of preferred stock to the Treasury. And it has been cutting jobs and shedding assets. In a speech last month, Lloyd Blankfein, the chief executive of Goldman, acknowledged the new challenges. "We are in the midst of a historically significant and uncertain time for business and the global economy," he said. Yet he was confident that Goldman would survive and prosper: "I have not lost sight of the fact that many of the most important opportunities in Goldman Sachs's history came about during times of stress. Our firm has proven its ability to adapt time and again, and, more than any other factor, our culture has given us the wherewithal to embrace change." It has usually not been a good idea to bet against Goldman. But a huge headline loss next week—especially if Morgan Stanley's results look better in comparison—might go a long way toward puncturing the last of Wall Street's myths: that Goldman is a firm of the best and brightest whose unique culture allows it to find and pursue profitable opportunities in any environment. Perhaps Goldman is not so special after all? Related LinksWall Street Huddles for SafetyWall Street's New RealitiesSaving Wall Street From Itself
As if you didn't know yet, the United States is in a recession. The nation's business cycle tracker, the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts, announced anticlimactically today that economic activity peaked in December of 2007, right around the time employment numbers started to head south and four months after the start of the credit crunch. The Bush expansion—as it may come to be known—does not stack up well against the Clinton boom of the 1990s on many measures. For one, the economy grew for 120 straight months in the 1990s versus 73 this decade. Incomes also grew under Clinton while they remained stagnant under Bush. Gross domestic product per capita, a rough measure of living standards, grew by 51 percent during the tech boom under Clinton versus 33 percent during the real estate boom under Bush II. (But if you compare the average monthly gain in G.D.P.-per-capita, Bush squeaks out a win: 0.45 percent versus 0.42 percent.) But the main question on everyone's mind now is when will our bust come to an end? If you look at the yield curve, historically a very reliable indicator of swings in the business cycle, activity should pick up by the end of 2009. That would mean that the recession will be longer than many professional economists are forecasting. Which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, considering what a bad job forecasters did with predicting this recession. Another recent reliable indicator is actually the N.B.E.R. recession announcement itself. During the two previous downturns, in 1990 and 2001, the N.B.E.R. made its recession call after the actual downturn had ended. Unfortunately, a global financial disaster makes the chances of that good fortune happening this time around close to zero. In fact, November marks the eleventh month of the current retrenchment, beating the average length of post-World War II recessions by one month. And if the recession lasts past April, it'll be the longest downturn since the Great Depression. With the N.B.E.R.'s announcement, the U.S. joins a growing group of rich countries that are also in official recessions—a list that includes Japan, New Zealand, and the 15 countries of the euro zone.Correction: This article was amended to say that the economy grew for 120 consecutive months in the 1990s, not 120 consecutive quarters. Related LinksWorst of TimesThe Fed on DeckHow Economic Turmoil Breeds Innovation
The Mumbai terrorists used an array of commercial technologies -- from Blackberries to GPS navigators to anonymous e-mail accounts -- to pull off their heinous attacks. For years, terrorists and insurgents around the world have used off-the-shelf hardware and software to stay ahead of bigger, better-funded authorities. In 2007, former U.S. Central Command chief Gen. John Abizaid complained that, with their Radio Shack stockpile of communications gear, "this enemy is better networked than we are." The strikes that killed at least 174 appears to be another example of how wired today's "global guerrillas" can be. As they approached Mumbai by boat, the terrorists "steered the vessel using GPS equipment," according to the Daily Mail. A satellite phone was later found aboard. Once the coordinated attacks began, the terrorists were on their cell phones constantly. They used BlackBerries "to monitor international reaction to the atrocities, and to check on the police response via the internet," the Courier Mail reports. The gunmen were able to trawl the internet for information after cable television feeds to the two luxury hotels and office block were cut by the authorities. The men looked beyond the instant updates of the Indian media to find worldwide reaction to the events in Mumbai, and to keep abreast of the movements of the soldiers sent to stop them. Outside of Leopold's Cafe, "one of the gunmen seemed to be talking on a mobile phone even as he used his other hand to fire off rounds," an eyewitness told the New York Times. The terror group then took credit for the bloodshed with a series of e-mails to local media. They used a "remailer" service to mask their identities; earlier attacks were claimed from cyber cafes.Related LinksYouTube: Now Terror Free!Dash Navigation: New Twist on an Old Tech StoryDVR Commercial Skipping: Like Rocks On a Pond?
The Federal Reserve is trying to get consumer finance flowing again. The Fed announced a program last week that would provide as much as $200 billion in loans for securities backed by credit cards, auto loans, student loans, and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration.At the same time, however, financial institutions are scrambling to turn off the taps. Meredith Whitney, the banking analyst with Oppenheimer & Co., estimates that more than $2 trillion of credit-card lines will be pulled over the next 18 months. Such a retrenchment would be devastating to consumer spending, as credit cards are second only to jobs in their importance to consumer liquidity. "We are now beginning to see evidence of broad-based declines in overall consumer liquidity," she wrote, estimating a decline of 45 percent, according to Reuters. The credit-card market is lagging the mortgage market by 18 months and will begin to shrink by mid-2010, Whitney said.Many big lenders have been trying to cut their exposure to credit cards, closing accounts, lowering limits, and instituting higher rates or stricter terms. Some $21 billion in bad credit-card debt was written off in the first half of 2008 and tens of billions of dollars more in losses are expected. Capital One, the largest independent card issuer, said in its earnings call in October that it had begun to reduce credit lines. The chill in the air is consumer spending being frozen solid. Related LinksShould the Fed Go Long?Bernanke's SpeechBaby Steps
Paul Tudor Jones tripled his money by predicting the stock-market crash of 1987. The crash of 2008 hasn't treated him quite so well.Just as troubled banks have floated proposals to split into two, with a "good bank/bad bank structure," Jones' Tudor Investment Corp. is splitting off the bad investments made by its $10 billion Tudor BVI Global Fund into a separate fund. The Legacy Fund will have lower fees and illiquid assets such as corporate credit from emerging markets in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The remaining BVI Global Fund will continue to invest in international stocks, bonds, and other securities. Jones also told investors that redemptions from the fund would be temporarily suspended, with the expectation they could resume by the end of next March. The fund had received requests for $1.4 billion, or about 14 percent of net assets, which would have left remaining assets holding too much of the illiquid assets. This news is yet another blow to the embattled hedge fund industry. Jones has long been known as one of the industry's top traders, with his Tudor BVI Global fund returning 22 percent on average annually since it launched in 1986. "I recognize that a restructuring is an unwelcome, but I believe necessary, step against the backdrop of Tudor BVI's 22-year history of unbroken profitable years," Jones wrote in a letter to investors. "I believe it is but a brief step, however, on the road to important long-term changes for the benefit of all investors."The news is also troubling because the fund was forced to take these steps despite the fact that it is far outperforming its peers. The Tudor Global Fund is down just 5 percent year-to-date, while the composite index of global funds tracked by Hedge Fund Research is down 22 percent year-to-date. If investors are that eager to withdraw their money from one of the better-performing funds out there, there's no telling how ugly it has become for the less fortunate managers. Related LinksThe Pirate PoseWhen a Publicly-Listed Hedge Fund Blows UpSign of a Bottom?
The only thing that is certain is that Detroit cannot do much worse in Washington than it did before. Tomorrow is the deadline when General Motors, Ford Motor, and Chrysler must tell Congress how they intend to overhaul their companies and how they would use $25 billion in federal loans. There will be hearings on Thursday and Friday, and Congress could reconvene to vote on aid next week. Winning aid would be a huge turnaround from last month. Then, in two days of congressional hearings, the executives of the Big Three appeared utterly clueless. They had trouble articulating the health of their companies or explaining how they would use federal aid. The executives were mocked by lawmakers for flying to Washington in private jets. In its overhaul plan, G.M. is expected to unveil a significant downsizing. Bill Vlasic of the New York Times says that will include shutting more factories and winnowing brands. Christine Tierney and David Shepardson of the Detroit News say it could mean that as many as four of G.M.'s eight brands get the ax. Saturn and Pontiac are among the most likely candidates for elimination.Chrysler's salvation may rest only in a merger, if not with G.M. then perhaps with a foreign automaker. Ford Motor is in the best position to survive over the next few months.That's not the case for either G.M. or Chrysler if there is no federal support. Both are burning cash at alarming rates.John Stoll of the Wall Street Journal says the G.M. board is considering all alternatives, including a filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, even though the company's chief executive, Rick Wagoner, has said publicly that bankruptcy is not an option. It is widely believed that consumers would shun an automaker in bankruptcy out of concern that warranties would be meaningless and parts would be more difficult to obtain.G.M. and Ford are also turning to another place for government help: Sweden. John Reed of the Financial Times says that both automakers have approached the Swedish government about aid for their Saab and Volvo units. The plight of Detroit will also be underscored on Tuesday, when automakers report U.S. sales for the month. November sales are expected to come in at a 25-year low.Related LinksDetroit Needs a MiracleAMI Chief Asks Employees to Back Auto BailoutThe Drive to Save Detroit
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